2024 Hurricane Forecast

The NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has forecast above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. The outlook for 2024’s Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 31, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. 

This range means that there could be 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) Of those 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). Included in those numbers 4 to 7 could become major hurricanes (category 3,4 or5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). The expected above-normal activity is due to a confluence of factors, near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation. 

As one of the strongest El Niños ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Niña conditions which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity. This tends to lessen wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, creating more energy to fuel storm development that could create potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, that would make for African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow without disrupting strong wind shear and minimize ocean cooling.